Macro Rumble

How Algorand (ALGO) reacts to macro news

ALGO moves 2.5× a normal hour after FOMC; 40% of releases give it a top-10% hour.

47 releases since 2021 · mostly 2022+ · median move vs matched normal hours

Algorand (ALGO) has data for 826 scheduled macro releases across 10 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (±1.32%, 1.8× a normal hour), the smallest after Bank of England rate decision (±0.49%, 1.0× a normal hour).

Next release that moves ALGO: Bank of England rate decision,

Data: Kraken. ALGO prices are Kraken spot ALGO/USD 5-minute and hourly candles from 1 Jan 2021 (when Kraken trading in ALGO became continuous). One exchange for the whole history, so no figures mix sources. Sources.

How much bigger the ALGO move is after each event than in a normal hour (median vs matched quiet hours; 1× = no different). Faded bars are not clearly above noise. Tap a bar for every release.

Every event, ranked by how much it moves ALGO

Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.

Event× normalTop-10%Impact+5m+1h+4h+24h% up +1hReleasesRel.
FOMC rate decision2.5×40%High0.74%1.31%2.33%4.19%74%47
US Consumer Price Index (CPI)1.8×29%High0.82%1.32%2.26%2.29%59%69
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)1.4×22%High0.49%0.73%1.46%2.71%54%69
US Producer Price Index (PPI)1.1×10%Medium0.39%0.81%1.53%3.16%54%69
Bank of England rate decision1.0×15%Low0.25%0.49%1.42%3.29%39%46
US initial jobless claims1.0×8%Medium0.25%0.53%1.47%3.01%46%297
US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays)1.0×15%Medium0.39%0.69%1.65%2.56%44%68
US GDP (advance estimate)1.0×4%Medium0.28%0.77%0.82%2.27%42%24
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)0.9×6%Low0.17%0.51%1.13%2.76%54%69
US retail sales0.9×16%Low0.27%0.71%1.67%2.74%66%68

Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.

Backtest ALGO rules →ALGO seasonality →

Recaps where ALGO moved most

Event recaps ranked by the size of ALGO's first-hour move. All event recaps →

Other markets

BTCETHSOLXRPLTCDOGELINKADATAOBNBTRXZECHYPEXMRBCHXLMNEARUNIAVAXDOTSUIAAVEPEPESHIBALGOPAXGEUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/CADUSD/CHFAUD/USDSPYQQQ