How Bitcoin reacts to macro news
BTC moves 1.6× a normal hour after FOMC; 27% of releases give it a top-10% hour.
Bitcoin has data for 1,396 scheduled macro releases across 10 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (±0.56%, 1.4× a normal hour), the smallest after UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) (±0.27%, 1.0× a normal hour).
Next release that moves BTC: FOMC rate decision,
Every event, ranked by how much it moves BTC
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | +24h | % up +1h | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 1.6× | 27% | High | 0.31% | 0.48% | 0.96% | 2.42% | 51% | 77 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 1.6× | 15% | High | 0.21% | 0.40% | 0.67% | 1.14% | 58% | 117 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.4× | 32% | High | 0.24% | 0.56% | 1.11% | 1.83% | 55% | 117 |
| US retail sales | 1.3× | 12% | Low | 0.12% | 0.39% | 0.83% | 1.33% | 53% | 115 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.1× | 11% | Medium | 0.15% | 0.34% | 0.76% | 1.85% | 62% | 117 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.1× | 10% | Low | 0.14% | 0.36% | 0.84% | 1.78% | 49% | 505 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.1× | 11% | Medium | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.88% | 1.73% | 42% | 114 |
| UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.0× | 17% | Low | 0.07% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 1.70% | 56% | 117 |
| Bank of England rate decision | 1.0× | 12% | Low | 0.09% | 0.29% | 0.84% | 1.82% | 46% | 78 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 0.9× | 3% | Medium | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.48% | 1.30% | 49% | 39 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.
Recaps where BTC moved most
Event recaps ranked by the size of BTC's first-hour move. All event recaps →
- FOMC · 15 Mar 2020 +14.71%
- US payrolls (NFP) · 10 Mar 2017 +8.57%
- FOMC · 23 Mar 2020 +8.06%
- US CPI · 10 Nov 2022 +6.67%
- US CPI · 13 Sep 2022 -5.96%