How EUR/USD reacts to macro news
EUR/USD moves 5.8× a normal hour after FOMC; 83% of releases give it a top-10% hour.
EUR/USD has data for 935 scheduled macro releases across 10 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after FOMC rate decision (±0.23%, 5.8× a normal hour), the smallest after UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) (±0.05%, 0.9× a normal hour).
Next release that moves EUR/USD: Bank of England rate decision,
Smaller sample: our EUR/USD history starts on 1 Apr 2020, when Kraken trading in EUR/USD became continuous, so it covers fewer releases than the coins we track from 2017.
Currency moves are shown in pips as well as %. A pip is 0.0001 of the price; pip figures use the latest EUR/USD price, so they are a guide to size, not exact for older releases.
Data: Kraken. EUR/USD prices are Kraken spot EUR/USD 5-minute and hourly candles from 1 Apr 2020 (when Kraken trading in EUR/USD became continuous). One exchange for the whole history, so no figures mix sources. Sources.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves EUR/USD
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | +24h | % up +1h | ReleasesRel. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 5.8× | 83% | High | 0.16% · 17 pips | 0.23% · 26 pips | 0.31% · 34 pips | 0.47% · 53 pips | 58% | 53 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 3.3× | 59% | High | 0.14% · 16 pips | 0.19% · 22 pips | 0.22% · 24 pips | 0.33% · 36 pips | 60% | 78 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 3.2× | 55% | High | 0.17% · 19 pips | 0.19% · 22 pips | 0.20% · 23 pips | 0.25% · 28 pips | 51% | 78 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.7× | 37% | Medium | 0.08% · 9 pips | 0.14% · 16 pips | 0.27% · 30 pips | 0.32% · 36 pips | 48% | 27 |
| US retail sales | 1.6× | 34% | Low | 0.06% · 6 pips | 0.11% · 12 pips | 0.16% · 18 pips | 0.22% · 25 pips | 48% | 77 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.5× | 24% | Medium | 0.05% · 5 pips | 0.09% · 10 pips | 0.17% · 19 pips | 0.25% · 28 pips | 50% | 337 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.5× | 14% | Medium | 0.05% · 6 pips | 0.13% · 14 pips | 0.19% · 22 pips | 0.24% · 27 pips | 47% | 77 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.3× | 27% | Medium | 0.06% · 7 pips | 0.10% · 11 pips | 0.17% · 19 pips | 0.29% · 33 pips | 53% | 78 |
| Bank of England rate decision | 1.2× | 15% | Low | 0.02% · 3 pips | 0.07% · 8 pips | 0.15% · 17 pips | 0.27% · 30 pips | 44% | 52 |
| UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 0.9× | 9% | Low | 0.02% · 2 pips | 0.05% · 6 pips | 0.13% · 14 pips | 0.25% · 27 pips | 41% | 78 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.
Recaps where EUR/USD moved most
Event recaps ranked by the size of EUR/USD's first-hour move. All event recaps →
- US CPI · 10 Nov 2022 +1.82%
- US CPI · 13 Sep 2022 -1.43%
- US CPI · 13 Dec 2022 +0.96%
- FOMC · 18 Dec 2024 -0.94%
- FOMC · 13 Dec 2023 +0.89%