How GLD (Gold ETF) reacts to macro news
GLD moves 5.4× a normal 2–3pm ET hour after FOMC; 93% of releases give it a top-10% 2–3pm ET hour.
GLD (Gold ETF) has data for 1,158 scheduled macro releases across 8 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after FOMC rate decision (±0.47%, 5.4× a normal 2–3pm ET hour), the smallest after US GDP (advance estimate) (±0.16%, 1.2× a normal opening hour).
Next release that moves GLD: US initial jobless claims,
US events only; IEX venue prices, regular hours, so 08:30 ET releases are measured from the 09:30 open.
Thin early years: IEX traded GLD thinly before about 2021 (especially DIA, and TLT before 2020), so some 5-minute bars are empty and some early releases are measured from fewer trades.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves GLD
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal 2–3pm ET hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | % up +1h | ReleasesRel. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 5.4× | 93% | High | 0.16% | 0.47% | – | 55% | 77 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 1.3× | 32% | High | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.33% | 52% | 110 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.3× | 25% | High | 0.07% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 55% | 110 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.2× | 16% | Medium | 0.09% | 0.16% | 0.30% | 51% | 37 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.1× | 21% | Medium | 0.07% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 51% | 490 |
| US retail sales | 1.1× | 21% | Low | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.33% | 42% | 111 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.1× | 16% | Medium | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.34% | 52% | 110 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.0× | 14% | Medium | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 46% | 113 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.