How IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) reacts to macro news
IWM moves 2.6× a normal 2–3pm ET hour after FOMC; 61% of releases give it a top-10% 2–3pm ET hour.
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) has data for 1,186 scheduled macro releases across 8 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after US retail sales (±0.47%, 1.3× a normal opening hour), the smallest after US GDP (advance estimate) (±0.34%, 1.3× a normal opening hour).
Next release that moves IWM: US initial jobless claims,
US events only; IEX venue prices, regular hours, so 08:30 ET releases are measured from the 09:30 open.
IWM comes from the same IEX HIST release-day files as SPY/QQQ.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves IWM
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal 2–3pm ET hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | % up +1h | ReleasesRel. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 2.6× | 61% | High | 0.21% | 0.40% | – | 52% | 77 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 1.4× | 23% | High | 0.20% | 0.43% | 0.60% | 49% | 113 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.3× | 21% | Medium | 0.17% | 0.34% | 0.53% | 54% | 113 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.3× | 16% | Medium | 0.15% | 0.45% | 0.47% | 46% | 116 |
| US retail sales | 1.3× | 14% | Low | 0.14% | 0.47% | 0.53% | 50% | 113 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.3× | 19% | Medium | 0.16% | 0.44% | 0.56% | 50% | 501 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.3× | 27% | High | 0.19% | 0.43% | 0.58% | 46% | 114 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.3× | 20% | Medium | 0.20% | 0.34% | 0.58% | 44% | 39 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.