Macro Rumble

How NEAR Protocol (NEAR) reacts to macro news

NEAR moves 3.0× a normal hour after US CPI; 57% of releases give it a top-10% hour.

n=51 releases since 2022 · 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles · median move vs matched normal hours

NEAR Protocol (NEAR) has data for 606 scheduled macro releases across 10 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (±1.87%, 3.0× a normal hour), the smallest after UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) (±0.44%, 1.1× a normal hour).

Next release that moves NEAR: FOMC rate decision,

Data: Kraken. NEAR prices are Kraken spot NEAR/USD 5-minute and hourly candles from 1 Jul 2022 (when Kraken trading in NEAR became continuous). One exchange for the whole history, so no figures mix sources. Sources.

Rows marked small n have fewer than 20 releases.

How much bigger the NEAR move is after each event than in a normal hour (median vs matched quiet hours; 1× = no different). Faded bars are not clearly above noise. Tap a bar for every release.

Every event, ranked by how much it moves NEAR

Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.

Event× normalTop-10%Impact+5m+1h+4h+24h% up +1hn
US Consumer Price Index (CPI)3.0×57%High1.00%1.87%2.55%3.13%63%51
FOMC rate decision2.8×38%High0.83%1.47%2.28%4.34%59%34
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)2.0×29%High0.49%0.78%1.53%2.47%51%51
Bank of England rate decision1.5×24%Low0.16%0.61%1.80%2.73%53%34
US initial jobless claims1.2×17%Medium0.29%0.57%1.40%3.14%46%218
US GDP (advance estimate) small n1.2×29%Medium0.29%0.50%1.34%2.41%35%17
US retail sales1.2×18%Low0.37%0.76%1.44%3.13%56%50
US Producer Price Index (PPI)1.1×22%Medium0.45%0.68%1.45%3.44%47%51
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)1.1×4%Low0.19%0.44%1.49%3.15%59%51
US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays)1.0×14%Medium0.44%0.67%1.52%2.30%47%49

Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.

Backtest NEAR rules →NEAR seasonality →

Recaps where NEAR moved most

Event recaps ranked by the size of NEAR's first-hour move. All event recaps →

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