How SPY (S&P 500 ETF) reacts to macro news
SPY moves 2.6× a normal 2–3pm ET hour after FOMC; 53% of releases give it a top-10% 2–3pm ET hour.
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has data for 1,183 scheduled macro releases across 8 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after FOMC rate decision (±0.31%, 2.6× a normal 2–3pm ET hour), the smallest after US retail sales (±0.16%, 1.3× a normal opening hour).
Next release that moves SPY: FOMC rate decision,
US events only; IEX venue prices, regular hours, so 08:30 ET releases are measured from the 09:30 open.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves SPY
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal 2–3pm ET hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | % up +1h | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 2.6× | 53% | High | 0.16% | 0.31% | – | 53% | 76 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 1.7× | 25% | High | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.44% | 60% | 113 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.5× | 11% | Medium | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.34% | 55% | 116 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.5× | 26% | Medium | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.43% | 49% | 39 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.5× | 26% | Medium | 0.08% | 0.24% | 0.39% | 52% | 112 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.5× | 18% | Low | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.34% | 52% | 500 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.5× | 24% | High | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.32% | 58% | 114 |
| US retail sales | 1.3× | 12% | Low | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.29% | 51% | 113 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.
Recaps where SPY moved most
Event recaps ranked by the size of SPY's move over the 4 hours after the release (the first hour is often pre-market). All event recaps →
- US CPI · 13 Oct 2022 +4.65%
- US CPI · 13 Dec 2022 -2.04%
- FOMC · 3 Mar 2020 -1.87%
- US payrolls (NFP) · 6 Oct 2023 +1.74%
- US payrolls (NFP) · 2 Sep 2022 -1.71%