How TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) reacts to macro news
TLT moves 3.2× a normal 2–3pm ET hour after FOMC; 88% of releases give it a top-10% 2–3pm ET hour.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) has data for 1,138 scheduled macro releases across 8 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after FOMC rate decision (±0.28%, 3.2× a normal 2–3pm ET hour), the smallest after US retail sales (±0.14%, 1.1× a normal opening hour).
Next release that moves TLT: US initial jobless claims,
US events only; IEX venue prices, regular hours, so 08:30 ET releases are measured from the 09:30 open.
Thin early years: IEX traded TLT thinly before about 2021 (especially DIA, and TLT before 2020), so some 5-minute bars are empty and some early releases are measured from fewer trades.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves TLT
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal 2–3pm ET hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | % up +1h | ReleasesRel. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 3.2× | 88% | High | 0.14% | 0.28% | – | 49% | 76 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 1.3× | 46% | High | 0.07% | 0.23% | 0.31% | 57% | 109 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.1× | 32% | High | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 49% | 109 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.1× | 30% | Medium | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.32% | 52% | 481 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.1× | 32% | Medium | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 59% | 110 |
| US retail sales | 1.1× | 31% | Low | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.34% | 52% | 108 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.1× | 37% | Medium | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 61% | 38 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.0× | 25% | Medium | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.28% | 47% | 107 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.