How USD/CAD reacts to macro news
USD/CAD moves 3.3× a normal hour after FOMC; 54% of releases give it a top-10% hour.
USD/CAD has data for 839 scheduled macro releases across 10 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after FOMC rate decision (±0.18%, 3.3× a normal hour), the smallest after Bank of England rate decision (±0.04%, 1.1× a normal hour).
Next release that moves USD/CAD: Bank of England rate decision,
Smaller sample: our USD/CAD history starts on 1 Dec 2020, when Kraken trading in USD/CAD became continuous, so it covers fewer releases than the coins we track from 2017.
Currency moves are shown in pips as well as %. A pip is 0.0001 of the price; pip figures use the latest USD/CAD price, so they are a guide to size, not exact for older releases.
Data: Kraken. USD/CAD prices are Kraken spot USD/CAD 5-minute and hourly candles from 1 Dec 2020 (when Kraken trading in USD/CAD became continuous). One exchange for the whole history, so no figures mix sources. Sources.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves USD/CAD
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | +24h | % up +1h | ReleasesRel. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 3.3× | 54% | High | 0.10% · 14 pips | 0.18% · 26 pips | 0.32% · 44 pips | 0.46% · 64 pips | 40% | 48 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 2.3× | 37% | High | 0.09% · 12 pips | 0.13% · 18 pips | 0.21% · 30 pips | 0.22% · 31 pips | 51% | 70 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 2.2× | 33% | High | 0.09% · 13 pips | 0.17% · 23 pips | 0.24% · 34 pips | 0.30% · 41 pips | 53% | 70 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.4× | 7% | Medium | 0.04% · 5 pips | 0.08% · 11 pips | 0.16% · 23 pips | 0.24% · 33 pips | 51% | 69 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.2× | 12% | Medium | 0.02% · 3 pips | 0.07% · 10 pips | 0.14% · 19 pips | 0.18% · 26 pips | 54% | 24 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.2× | 6% | Medium | 0.05% · 7 pips | 0.09% · 12 pips | 0.13% · 18 pips | 0.24% · 34 pips | 53% | 70 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.1× | 11% | Medium | 0.03% · 4 pips | 0.08% · 11 pips | 0.17% · 24 pips | 0.23% · 33 pips | 51% | 302 |
| US retail sales | 1.1× | 10% | Low | 0.04% · 6 pips | 0.08% · 11 pips | 0.16% · 22 pips | 0.22% · 30 pips | 59% | 69 |
| Bank of England rate decision | 1.1× | 13% | Low | 0.02% · 3 pips | 0.04% · 6 pips | 0.17% · 24 pips | 0.26% · 37 pips | 66% | 47 |
| UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 0.9× | 6% | Low | 0.02% · 2 pips | 0.04% · 6 pips | 0.11% · 15 pips | 0.28% · 39 pips | 70% | 70 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.
Recaps where USD/CAD moved most
Event recaps ranked by the size of USD/CAD's first-hour move. All event recaps →
- US CPI · 10 Nov 2022 -1.13%
- US CPI · 13 Oct 2022 +1.09%
- FOMC · 15 Jun 2022 -0.88%
- US CPI · 13 Sep 2022 +0.83%
- FOMC · 27 Jan 2021 +0.70%