How SLV (Silver ETF) reacts to macro news
SLV moves 4.8× a normal 2–3pm ET hour after FOMC; 86% of releases give it a top-10% 2–3pm ET hour.
SLV (Silver ETF) has data for 1,043 scheduled macro releases across 8 event types. The biggest typical +1h move (median size, either direction) came after FOMC rate decision (±0.86%, 4.8× a normal 2–3pm ET hour), the smallest after US GDP (advance estimate) (±0.33%, 1.5× a normal opening hour).
Next release that moves SLV: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP),
US events only; IEX venue prices, regular hours, so 08:30 ET releases are measured from the 09:30 open.
Thin early years: About a quarter to a third of SLV's 5-minute bars on IEX were empty in 2017 to 2019, about 1 in 10 from 2020 to 2023, and almost none from 2025. An empty bar means no IEX trade in those five minutes, so some early releases are measured from fewer trades and the price at release can be a few minutes old.
Every event, ranked by how much it moves SLV
Ranked by the move multiple: the median move after a release vs a matched normal 2–3pm ET hour. "Top-10%" is how often a release gives a move bigger than 90% of normal ones (10% would be no different from normal). Impact is the event's site-wide rating (see methodology). Typical move sizes by window follow (median absolute move, either direction). Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | × normal | Top-10% | Impact | +5m | +1h | +4h | % up +1h | ReleasesRel. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC rate decision | 4.8× | 86% | High | 0.35% | 0.86% | – | 62% | 69 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 1.6× | 44% | High | 0.19% | 0.62% | 0.67% | 47% | 100 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 1.5× | 43% | Medium | 0.20% | 0.33% | 0.54% | 50% | 30 |
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 1.2× | 29% | High | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.62% | 51% | 102 |
| US initial jobless claims | 1.2× | 31% | Medium | 0.15% | 0.37% | 0.54% | 48% | 440 |
| US retail sales | 1.2× | 28% | Low | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.54% | 42% | 102 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 1.2× | 26% | Medium | 0.15% | 0.35% | 0.56% | 53% | 102 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 1.1× | 26% | Medium | 0.16% | 0.34% | 0.67% | 50% | 98 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Typical sizes hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.