How we measure it

Every number on this site comes from the same simple recipe: take the official release time to the minute, take the price at that minute, and measure how far it had moved at fixed points afterwards. No forecasts, no models, no cherry-picking. Here are the sources, the rules and the caveats.

Release calendars (official)

• US CPI and US jobs report (NFP): BLS archived news releases (archive filenames carry the release date) and BLS release schedules; released 08:30 ET.
• FOMC: federalreserve.gov FOMC calendars and historical pages; the exact time comes from each statement's "For release at" line. Unscheduled 2020 statements are flagged and excluded from summaries.
• Bank of England: Monetary Policy Summary pages ("Published on" date); the Bank publishes them at 12 noon UK. The 2020 emergency cuts are not in this list.
• UK CPI: ONS previous releases and release calendar; bulletins are published at 7:00am UK.

Prices

• Other coins (SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, LINK, ADA, Bittensor TAO, BNB, TRON TRX, Zcash ZEC and Hyperliquid HYPE): Bitstamp spot USD pairs, measured exactly like BTC, from each coin's Bitstamp listing. Several are recent Bitstamp listings (HYPE from Nov 2025, BNB Dec 2025, TAO Jan 2026, TRX Feb 2026, ZEC Mar 2026), so their samples are tiny. Monero (XMR) is not listed on Bitstamp, so it is not covered.
• SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF): IEX venue prices (trades on the IEX exchange only, not the consolidated tape), regular hours 09:30–16:00 ET, built into 5-minute bars from IEX's free HIST (TOPS) files for release days only. Releases before the 09:30 ET open (most 8:30 ET data) are measured from the first bar at the open; FOMC at 2pm is measured from 2pm. There are no +24h/+1w windows or pre-release trends for ETFs, because only release days are loaded. Data provided for free by IEX. By accessing or using IEX Historical Data, you agree to the IEX Historical Data Terms of Use.
• Context series: US Treasury 2-year and 10-year yields (FRED DGS2, DGS10; U.S. Treasury) and the Federal Reserve's nominal broad US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS), all public domain. Yields and the dollar feed the Lab conditions (direction over the prior 30 days); the dollar index is also a daily asset like GBP/USD.
• New US events (PPI, PCE, advance GDP, retail sales, initial jobless claims): times are each agency's standard 8:30 ET release time. Past dates come from BLS release archives (PPI), BEA's news archive (GDP) and ALFRED (St. Louis Fed's archive of official release dates; PCE, retail sales, claims); upcoming dates from BLS, BEA and Census schedules (claims: Thursdays). A handful of releases moved to other times (for example during the 2025 shutdown) and may be mistimed.
• BTC/USD and ETH/USD: Bitstamp spot (BTC from 1 Jan 2017; ETH from its Bitstamp listing in Aug 2017). The open of the 1-minute candle at the release minute is the reference price; +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d use the 1-minute candle at that later time. 1-hour candles give the "typical hour" baseline (average absolute 1h candle move at the same UTC hour across all days).
• Biggest-move records: the "biggest first-hour move" figures on the homepage and in the rotating stats only count releases from 2018 onwards, so the extreme moves of the 2017 crypto bubble do not set the records. All other stats (multiples, top-10% rates, typical moves) still use every release since 2017.
• Impact rating (High / Medium / Low): one rating per event, used everywhere on the site. It compares Bitcoin's high-low range in the first five minutes after each past scheduled release with its five-minute ranges in the two hours before (median vs median). 2.5× or more is High, 1.7× up to 2.5× is Medium, below 1.7× is Low. Recomputed every morning. Currently: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.32× (High), FOMC rate decision 2.86× (High), US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) 3.08× (High), Bank of England rate decision 1.24× (Low), UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1.37× (Low), US Producer Price Index (PPI) 1.81× (Medium), US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) 1.96× (Medium), US GDP (advance estimate) 1.85× (Medium), US retail sales 1.54× (Low), US initial jobless claims 1.64× (Low).
• Move multiple: the headline "×" figures compare the median absolute move after releases with the median over matched normal windows: for crypto, the same UTC clock hour on up to four prior weekdays with no tracked release nearby; for SPY/QQQ, the first hour of trading (2pm–3pm ET for FOMC) on IEX days without that release (and, for 8:30am releases, without any 8:30am US release); for GBP/USD, the next daily fix change vs prior quiet weekdays. "Top-10%" is the share of releases whose move beat the 90th percentile of the normal windows. Results that a one-sided Mann-Whitney test can't separate from normal (p ≥ 0.05) or under 1.15× are described as barely moving. Recomputed every morning.
• Actual vs prior (indicative): a free surprise proxy, not consensus. For US CPI, PCE, PPI and retail sales it compares the month-on-month change with the previous month's; for payrolls the jobs change with the previous month's; for GDP growth with the previous quarter's; for jobless claims the level with the previous week's. It uses today's revised FRED values, not what was first published, so it can differ from what traders saw on the day.
• Live moves on the homepage: after a release, your browser fetches BTC/USD and ETH/USD from the Bitstamp public API and shows only the percentage move since the open of the release-minute candle (and at +1h and +4h, from the 1-minute candle at those times). No prices are stored or republished.
• GBP/USD: FRED series DEXUSUK, the Federal Reserve Board's H.10 noon New York buying rate (published with about a week's lag, so the latest releases may not have a GBP/USD figure yet).
• Not shown: perpetual funding rates and the S&P 500, because we have not found a source whose terms clearly permit display on this site.

Licences and attribution

• BLS: public domain; BLS asks to be cited as the source (BLS copyright information).
• Federal Reserve Board: public domain unless otherwise indicated; cite the Board as the source (Board disclaimer).
• ONS: Crown copyright, contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 (ONS terms).
• Bank of England: Monetary Policy Summary release dates from bankofengland.co.uk (Bank of England legal).
• GBP/USD: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate [DEXUSUK], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series page).
• Crypto: Bitstamp exchange data via Bitstamp's public API. Bitstamp's API page states that it "allows the incorporation and redistribution of our exchange data for commercial purposes", including "statistics" based on it (Bitstamp API).
• Macro Rumble shows only percentage changes and statistics derived from these sources, not price feeds. It is independent and not affiliated with or endorsed by any of them.

Data and licence

Our charts and stats are free to view and share. Just link back to Macro Rumble. The underlying prices and release data come from the sources credited above and stay subject to their terms. We don't offer raw data downloads or a data feed.

Coverage

Price data ranges

Definitions

Median and % up are across releases. "Average absolute move" is the mean size of the move regardless of direction. "Reversed by +4h" means the +4h move from the release price has the opposite sign to the +1h move.